Could cryptocurrency mining kill online advertising?

(linkedin.com)

79 points | by MilnerRoute 2369 days ago

19 comments

  • 3pt14159 2369 days ago
    Disclosure: I own Bitcoin, Dash, and Sia, but I've sold most of my Bitcoin.

    I'm surprised I even have to spell this out for people, but here goes:

    Mining stops the double spend problem just like market makers solve the liquidity problem: A little bit is great, but at scale it's divorced from the public good it provides. We don't need the amount of mining that is going on in Bitcoin right now. It's just wasted cycles because of the economics of the damn thing.

    What fundamental good does spreading any PoW to millions or billions of devices accomplish? Nothing. That is why cryptocurrency mining will never take over advertising.

    What should take over advertising (if anything) is micropayments built into the browser. Maybe with some sort of probabilistic or web-of-trust mechanism on top to prevent the bookkeeping burden from overtaking the payment amount.

    The problem with advertising is that it rots peoples minds and makes certain classes of goods compete on brand instead of competing on quality.

    • beaner 2369 days ago
      Advertising will never go away. You pay for cable, yet cable still has ads. Micropayments could potentially be adopted as a short-term alternative, but if it were ever to become the status quo, publishers would just start adding advertisements on top. Then we'd have a system where we both pay money directly, and also have ads, which would be worse.
      • celticninja 2368 days ago
        The number one reason I dont pay for cable, but I do pay for Amazon prime video and I dont get adverts there, I assume Netflix is the same. If I was paying £50 a month for sky TV I would be annoyed at advertising being shown to me. I put up with adverts on free to air TV and am happy to pay a licence fee to the BBC for advert free television and radio. It's possible to provide a service that charges for access and doesn't show adverts as these options prove, however greedy media firms want to have their cake and to eat it.
      • 3pt14159 2369 days ago
        It doesn’t take that much machine learning to identify an ad and if micro payments were built into the browser they could be trivially tuned to only award payments on non-advertisers.
        • alwillis 2368 days ago
          You can participate with this now using Brave, a Chromium-based browser that uses cryptocurrency-based micropayments to pay for content while blocking adds: https://brave.com
        • beaner 2369 days ago
          This wouldn't solve the problem is payment is required up front for the content.
    • KVFinn 2369 days ago
      >It's just wasted cycles because of the economics of the damn thing.

      I think a lot of people miss that mining is zero sum when over the threshold that the network needs.

      For example if mining hardware costs dropped by one half, people catch up and mine with twice as much computing power, the network increases the difficulty of mining by two, and the same amount of bitcoin is distributed and secured as was before the hardware innovation. You aren't mining more 'efficiently' with advances in computing power at the large scale.

      • Double_a_92 2368 days ago
        But the trust in the system increases. By your logic we would need only one computer mining. It always takes 10 minutes (or so) anyway...
        • KVFinn 2368 days ago
          You do need a threshold, but I would argue the main risks to trust beyond that are in mining consolidation into powerful blocks, forks, etc.
    • olegkikin 2369 days ago
      Nobody would mine bitcoin in the browser in their right mind, it's a waste of resources. You would choose one of the coins made specifically for CPU/GPU mining only, no ASICs.
      • steeleduncan 2369 days ago
        Mining doesn't have to be a cost efficient use of cpu cycles for the person browsing for this to catch on, it just needs to be a more cost efficient use of bandwidth and server power for the entity serving the ads.

        Bitcoins are the consistently valuable and liquid coin, therefore it can make sense to serve bitcoin mining js.

        • Laforet 2369 days ago
          It will never be, and indeed nobody has bothered to make a bitcoin minibg js.

          Why? Because each desktop CPU would only yield 20-30 megahashes per second, less if you don't want to slow the user's computer to a crawl. A server would need to manage millions of clients just to match a single ASIC miner which has efficiency rated in terahashes. And that amount of hash power would only return about 30 dollars in bitcoin on a good day.

          This is why all javascript miners target Monero and the latter was often criticised for having a CPU-friendly PoW because this is just asking for botnets to form.

        • mitchty 2369 days ago
          If this ever catches on, i have even more reason to disable all javascript while browsing on my laptop and on battery.

          As it is javascript is the number one reason for shit battery life, I don't want to make that even worse than the days of flash which its rapidly already become today.

          • wmurmann 2369 days ago
            Better off just closing your laptop then, as most sites rely heavily on JavaScript.
            • mitchty 2369 days ago
              Really? My choice for the "modern" web is: no battery life or no web?

              Faustian bargains like that aren't a great definition of progress.

          • gruez 2369 days ago
            until you hit SPA sites that need javascript to work.
            • mitchty 2368 days ago
              That would be avoidable until I'm back on power.

              Fundamentally the issue here is energy consumption while on battery. Without a way to say: a site can use N% of battery and then hard cap the usage down to a trickle and alerting the site that the user has limited energy resources available, I think this is a non starter.

              Similar to when you are on LTE you don't want to use up limited bandwidth for say 4k video and want to say: you know what, I'll deal with this later and not go over my monthly allocation, the same applies here.

              Is that view that unreasonable?

      • 3pt14159 2369 days ago
        Of course not, but they can mine other coins that are more asic resistant.
    • ramshorns 2369 days ago
      > What fundamental good does spreading any PoW to millions or billions of devices accomplish? Nothing.

      Well, if the owners of those devices control the mining they're doing, then it secures the network by preventing a 51% attack from any single miner with enough power. But in this case, only the website operator benefits by not having to pay for electricity.

    • KGIII 2368 days ago
      Ads make content available to people with no money to spend. Restricting content to those who can pay, instead of paying by ad placement, is only going to further the divide between social classes.
  • maltalex 2369 days ago
    Although outraged by the idea at first, I have to say that there are some benefits here:

    0. This starves the advertising industry, which has insatiable apatite for private information, and questionable practices of obtaining it.

    1. Payment is done using only CPU power and you electric bill which are private, and the process itself could be made secure and efficient by incorporating it into browsers.

    2. Sites no longer have to trick you or your ad blocker into watching something you don't want to watch (or clicking on it). Instead, they are motivated to keep you on their site longer. It's not perfect, and trickery still might be involved, but it still seems like a better motivation. Heck, some sites might even try to keep you by producing solid content.

    3. Journalists get an income source without any political strings attached, they don't have to worry about writing something bad about some major advertiser.

    However, I'm really not sure about the economics of all of this. How many CPU cycles does it take to replace a single ad?

    Plus, wasting all of those CPU cycles on mining produces nothing of actual value. I'd much rather auction off some of my CPU time to the highest bidder or contribute it to some worthy cause.

    • zeep 2369 days ago
      > 1. Payment is done using only CPU power and you electric bill which are private, and the process itself could be made secure and efficient by incorporating it into browsers.

      Not really private... my electric meter broadcasts my power consumption in plain text on the 900MHz ISM band every minute... I used this program to read the meters of all my neighbors: https://github.com/bemasher/rtlamr ... You probably also can buy the data from the power companies...

      • maltalex 2368 days ago
        Ok, so it's not 100% private. But still, no one knows who you've contributed to, and how much. Heck, no one even knows whether you've contributed anything at all; maybe you just ran your washing machine.

        As far as passing money between people goes, it's more private than giving someone cash in a back alley.

    • zeta0134 2369 days ago
      I think this would be more beneficial if we thought of it as distributed computing, rather than just cryptocurrency mining. Look at projects like BOINC, and imagine for a moment that those tasks could run in a web browser without slowing things down to a crawl.

      Sure it's less efficient and the tasks need to be broken down into much smaller chunks, but at least this way your spare CPU power could be auctioned off to some more useful purpose. What if instead of an ad space, you're running protein folding simulations, or rendering frames for a small art studio's film project? I'd gladly donate my spare CPU cycles for those kinds of projects on purpose. I think there's a market for this kind of thing, and I'd like to see more experimentation.

  • thinkloop 2369 days ago
    Like others have mentioned, the economics are not good, mining is too competitive to be done on commodity hardware. Consider that over half of browsing now happens on mobile, and it becomes clear that very few people can participate.
    • ColanR 2369 days ago
      That's not actually true - some coins are designed to be used on "commodity hardware". Monero is one, and it's what Coinbase uses.

      Last I counted, my estimate on profitability was 0.006 cents / computer / minute.

      https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/62m5mu/eli5_why_can...

      • jstanley 2369 days ago
        In what way does Coinbase use Monero?
      • tromp 2369 days ago
        Monero's PoW relies on native AES instructions to be efficient on PCs with recent Intel/AMD CPUs, but remains very inefficient on mobile and older desktop CPUs.
    • hollander 2369 days ago
      Who cares if it's not economical on commodity hardware, be it a smartphone or not. If I have a website that is visited by enough people to mine me a (part of a) bitcoin, while at the same time the cost of hosting the site is less than what is earned, what does it matter if the mining power is not efficient? If I care more about money than about environment, it's a good business model. But you probably need a lot of visitors for that, and I have no idea if it works out.
      • aaron-lebo 2369 days ago
        mine me a (part of a) bitcoin,

        To be clear, literally mining Bitcoin without specialized equipment is so wildly unprofitable to be an idiotic business model and that's obvious after five minutes of Googling.

        • trophycase 2369 days ago
          Profitability doesn't matter if you're not paying costs but getting the income.
          • aaron-lebo 2369 days ago
            It does matter if you are: making pennies (Bitcoin on commodity machines is this way), are turning away users, or are using it instead of advertising.

            There's also the bit about stability, you might have a business model that's profitable one month or worthless the next. Who wants that risk?

          • thinkloop 2369 days ago
            I believe the unprofitability is such that it can't even pay the expenses of serving the pages. Even if it could though, why would you opt for something that barely allows you to survive, rather than make a killing for all the value you are clearly providing?
        • chenshuiluke 2369 days ago
          They wouldn't be using Bitcoin, they'd use Monero.
        • sixo 2369 days ago
          It's free if it doesn't use your power though...
          • drawnwren 2369 days ago
            But it's not free when compared to advertising. Case in point, this article hypothesizes about botnets mining cryptocoins - but botnets are already frequently used to exploit advertising payment channels.
      • stale2002 2369 days ago
        You could have a hundred billion smartphones mining Bitcoin via you website and you wouldn't make a single dollar from it.
  • cupscale 2369 days ago
    Someone did the math on this, right? I thought the amount of revenue generated was a complete pittance.

    More likely, this is just something sites start doing on top of advertising.

    • aaron-lebo 2369 days ago
      They did the last few times it was attempted.

      https://hn.algolia.com/?query=javascript%20miner&sort=byPopu...

      There's this great blurb:

      We're a bit saddened to see that some of our customers integrate Coinhive into their pages without disclosing to their users what's going on, let alone asking for their permission. We believe there's so much more potential for our solution, but we have to be respectful to our end users.

      https://coinhive.com/blog/status-report

      It'd be awesome if someone did a comprehensive breakdown. If you scale this up to remove ads from 10% of the net or 30%, does it stay valuable with that mining power added to a single coin? Or does this business model require the continued pump and dump of worthless coins? What kind of energy and workload is this putting on user machines (in many cases without permission)?

      If I run across a site that is mining without notice and permission, I'll never visit again, as best as I can. I don't want to support that. Hosting websites is relatively cheap, if companies weren't writing such bloated software, their costs would be much lower. Fix that first without adding more junk to the tech community, please.

      • yuhong 2369 days ago
        Yea, the problem is the debt-based economy leading to things like the ad bubble in the first place. Mining is a process leading to a block reward too, and obviously typically as hashrate increases the difficulty increases too.
  • zython 2369 days ago
    > Hey, we spent a good fortune to make this site run on all devices, responsive and usable. Lets slow it down to mine *coin, we'll be able to make dozens, DOZENS !!
    • olegkikin 2369 days ago
      Depends on the traffic of the website and how long the visitors stay on it.

      According to coinwarz you can make $5.1 for 24 hours of mining on CPU/GPU, but realistically (for an average visitor) probably closer to $1/24hrs. If we take Reddit, which has 13 minutes average visit, probably between 5M and 50M daily visits.

      That's $45K - $451K daily revenue.

      That's probably more than their ad revenue.

      https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/reddit-stats/

  • Animats 2369 days ago
    No. It's a bottom-feeder thing and doesn't generate that much revenue anyway.
  • beager 2369 days ago
    Advertising is only valuable when the user is engaged with the device. It's a very poor model for mining. Why not:

    1. Sell compute when people aren't using their machines and split the spoils (not actually profitable for people who pay their own electric bills, but you don't have to say that)

    2. Just create malware miners that run all the time.

  • wolco 2369 days ago
    Never because if everyone adopted this the difficulty rating would go up by a factor of everyone.

    Currently it will take you two years of one the newer computers running constantly to even meet half of the min payout on coinhive.

    The more people the greater the difficulity. Lose-lose for everyone.

    Ads are great. The current trend against them is shortsighted. Without ads we would be paying for content in walled gardens with less share-ability. Content would he hoarded and tokenized as opposited to widely shared.

    Out of the 60 top thread would you micropay to read them all? No but someone does for each one and writes a summary in the comments. Lose-lose because the site gets less money/traffic the readers rely on secondhand information and no one is better off aside from the micropayment provider who takes a cut.

  • CapsAdmin 2369 days ago
    It's an interesting idea but I don't trust that websites will use "a little bit of my CPU" to mine cryptocurrencies. All they have to do is increase a number somewhere to earn more money which is too tempting.

    If people complain they'll just do it very slowly.

  • samsonradu 2369 days ago
    Can someone explain briefly how this works? I was under the assumption that you need to download the blockchain to be able to mine. Or in-browser mining just takes stabs in the dark?
    • eterm 2369 days ago
      Mining is typically something like:

      Hash(nonce + Hash(chain[including with new transactions])) < value.

      So in some sense you need the chain but you can pass Hash(chain) to a client and let that just increase nonce and hash it.

      Without synchronisation the found block might be for a stale chain but if you're using someone else's power you don't care, and the nature of distribution here means it's likely to be fresh anyway in the unlikely chance something is found.

      • dmurray 2368 days ago
        For anyone who was thinking, like me, "If that formula is correct, couldn't you precompute hashes and then subtract Hash(chain) to get the desired nonce", it's more like

        Hash(nonce + 2^256 * Hash(chain[including with new transactions])) < value

        Still an oversimplification, of course.

    • thinkloop 2369 days ago
      Mining is just running a dumb hash algorithm over and over. The website would provide the package of data to hash, the browser would start hashing, which could even be done offline. If the browser solves the block, the client sends the solution back to the server. The orchestration and blockchain access is handled behind the scenes by the server.
    • bradknowles 2369 days ago
      You don’t need to download the whole block chain in order to do mining. You just need to know a reasonable starting point.
    • sprash 2369 days ago
      You only need currently open transactions, a hash from the last block and a nonce.
  • stuntkite 2368 days ago
    This article's premise is about how we are on the edge of new disruption. They seem to think it's all been done rather than we are now sitting on innovations that require an unwritten playbook. Kinda like google, smart phones, or Amazon/eBay in the beginning. The talent pool is small again and specialized. The story is far from written.
    • hssys 2368 days ago
      Written?
      • stuntkite 2368 days ago
        Thanks. Sorry on mobile in an airport.
  • _jezell_ 2369 days ago
    You mean all that slow down when I visit Mashable isn't from generating crypto coins?
  • everdev 2369 days ago
    Revenue sources are rarely killed, usually supplemented. The only way to kill online advertising is if it stops being profitable for advertisers.
  • jbverschoor 2369 days ago
    No. It user experience and so conversion rate. It also kills battery life and therefore everything on the planet
  • pdimitar 2369 days ago
    Never gonna work. The publishers will simply add advertising again at some point so they're gonna reap double benefits.

    These people need to care for pigs. Or better yet, go homeless and dig for peach pits in a dumpster.

    They won't ever learn.

  • neka 2369 days ago
  • dang 2369 days ago
  • ada1981 2369 days ago
    As I've said before, when a headline asks a question, the answer is almost certainly "No."